Most of the hour radio show was on economics issues, but we still got to talk about the work being done by the CPRC. The audio is available here.
CPRC’s op-ed in the Star-Ledger (the largest paper in New Jersey) starts this way:
Gun control advocates just can’t let go of Gov. Chris Christie vetoing of a bill limiting gun magazines to 10 bullets. Christie’s warning that the bill wouldn’t save lives might not be politically popular, but it was scientifically accurate.
Obviously, politicians aren’t supposed to question whether gun control works, especially not so bluntly. But Christie wasn’t going to support new laws just for the sake of “doing something.”
“This is the very embodiment of reform in name only,” Christie noted in his veto. “It simply defies common sense to believe that imposing a new and entirely arbitrary number of bullets that can be lawfully loaded into a firearm will somehow eradicate, or even reduce, future instances of mass violence.”
Christie’s reasoning has driven many critics crazy. Former Republican congressman and current MSNBC host Joe Scarborough slammed Christie as making one of the “stupidest arguments” he’s ever heard. In Sunday’s Star-Ledger (“One Gov. to another: A missed opportunity”), Connecticut Gov. Dannel Malloy took the unusual step of unloading on him in an opinion piece, calling the decision “appalling” and “callous,” accusing Christie of doing it for “personal political aspirations,” and that the decision defied “common sense.”
But there is a reason that gun control supporters, such as Malloy, don’t provide evidence that Christie is factually in the wrong. . . .
The piece continues here.
The newest CPRC op-ed at Fox News starts this way:
Over the July 4 weekend, in Chicago alone, 16 people were shot to death and another 66 were wounded. At a press briefing on July 11, the White House weighed in, stating that Obama would “continue to make the case” that lawmakers should adopt new gun control laws. Two days later, on Sunday, Gov. Pat Quinn also called for more gun control, in particular a state ban on assault weapons, as the solution.
But Chicago’s problems lie with the city’s politicians. Nationally, police solve almost two out of every three murders – 63 percent of them. That figure is much lower in Chicago. In 2010, right before Rahm Emanuel became mayor, the rate for Chicago was 39 percent. But by Emanuel’s second year in office, it had plunged to an official rate of 26 percent. (In reality it is even lower, because Chicago has tried to hide how bad things are by increasingly misclassifying murders as non-murders.)
After becoming mayor, Emanuel did three unfortunate things to the Chicago police force:
1) He closed down detective bureaus in Chicago’s highest crime districts and moved them elsewhere, sometimes quite far away.
3) He disbanded many gang task forces. . . .
The rest of the piece is available here.
Something that should have been included in the piece is that instead of the Obama administration sending FBI agents they are sending seven additional Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) agents to help with the city’s gun violence problem.
UPDATE: Headline in Chicago Tribune on July 19th: “22 shot in Chicago over 12 hours, including girl, 11, killed at sleepover“
Between 2008 and 2013, the share of women’s permits issued each year in Tennessee have gone up 31%. For Texas over the same years, the share rose even more dramatically, by 52.5%.
The raw Tennessee data is available here.
The raw Texas data is available here.
Florida has information on the number of permit holders by gender and age, but they don’t have information on how this has changed over time (click to enlarge picture).
Fox News extensively quoted CPRC president John Lott about the tragic story of a young mother who ran afoul of New Jersey gun laws. On October 1st, Shaneen Allen, 27, was stopped by police in New Jersey’s Atlantic County after making an unsafe lane change. Allen then volunteered that she had the .380 Bersa Thunder handgun, as well as a concealed carry permit for Pennsylvania, unaware that her permit was not transferable to The Garden State. The judge in the case indicated that Allen was only in trouble because of her honesty and that she had no intent on breaking the law.
From Fox News:
John Lott, Jr., president of the Crime Prevention Research Center, said the case was similar to that of Brian Aitken, a New Jersey man whose seven-year prison sentence was eventually commuted by Gov. Chris Christie.
In early 2009, Aitken moved back to New Jersey from Colorado to be closer to his young son and estranged wife. A planned visit with his son was canceled at the last minute and his mother, who was concerned for his safety, called the police. A subsequent search of his car by officers revealed two locked and unloaded handguns in the trunk, both of which were purchased legally in Colorado.
Aitken’s father, Larry, told FoxNews.com at the time that he refused to see his son lost in the patchwork of state gun laws throughout the country.
“I don’t think there are words yet invented that could characterize the — I guess anger would be one word, but it’s a lot deeper than anger,” Larry Aitken told FoxNews.com in 2010. “Whatever the word is that’s a combination of anger, shock, disbelief, horror and a desire to expose all of this — that’s the word.”
Lott, meanwhile, said he hopes “something similar” happens in Allen’s case, adding that she clearly did not intend to commit any crime.
“These mandatory sentences sometimes create really unfortunate results,” Lott continued. “My own academic research indicates that Ms. Allen is the type of person who benefits the most from having permitted concealed handguns: a minority woman who lives in high-crime urban areas. The people who are most likely to be victims of crime are the ones who benefit the most from having a gun for protection. In addition, women benefit much more than men do because they tend to be much weaker physically than their attackers.” . . .
Fox News had a follow article on the case:
Allen, who has no prior criminal record, said she acquired the gun legally just a week prior to her arrest. She was headed to Atlantic City, N.J., in the early-morning hours to prepare for her son’s birthday party, which was being held three days later.
“I was bringing a cake and the dog to the hotel room to surprise him,” she said. “That’s what I was doing out there and I got pulled over at 1 in the morning because I was sleepy and I swerved.”
Allen purchased the gun for protection after being robbed twice in the past year, she said, adding that she never even fired it and feels somewhat snake-bitten by the entire ordeal.
“It’s definitely a freak thing,” she said. “I was trying to do a good thing and it turned out so bad — and just like that. I don’t know how to explain it, I really don’t.”
Allen reiterated that she immediately told the officer she had a gun in her 2007 Chevrolet sedan, as well as a concealed carry permit for neighboring Pennsylvania. . . .
A number of people have looked at how homicide rates have changed over 13 years for the countries that have supplied the vast majority of unaccompanied alien children to the US: focusing on El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. The claim is that increased violence ushered in the flood of unaccompanied children into the U.S. In all the years up to 2012, Mexico has accounted for most of the unaccompanied children coming to the US. For 3 of the 4 Central American countries and Mexico (accounting for almost all the unaccompanied alien children entering US) higher homicide rates are actually more likely associated with fewer unaccompanied children coming to the U.S. than the reverse.
Surprisingly, the homicide rate has only risen sharply for one country — Honduras. But between 2011 and 2013 the homicide rates fell for El Salvador, Honduras, and Mexico. They were also flat for Guatemala. But this is the time that unaccompanied alien children coming to the US soared by over 140 percent.
According to the U.S. Border Patrol data on the number of unaccompanied alien children is overwhelmingly from just four countries (click to make the figure bigger, figure from the New York Times). Obviously there are only a small number of observations here, but we can still see how homicide rates are correlated to the number of children coming to the U.S. from these countries (surprisingly something that no one seems to have done). And when one does that, three of these four countries show that during the four years from 2009 to 2012, higher homicide rates were associated with fewer unaccompanied children coming across the U.S. border. Only for Honduras does more homicides produce children coming to the U.S.. However, even though Honduras has by far the highest homicide rate out of all four countries in 2012 (twice as high as El Salvador and over four times higher than Mexico), it accounts for the fewest number of children. Given Mexico’s proximity to the US, it isn’t surprising that it accounts for by far the most unaccompanied children over this period. But children from El Salvador and Honduras have to travel virtually the same distance and Honduras has a 25% larger population. But Honduras still has a much higher homicide rate and yet up until 2013 it had a much lower number of unaccompanied children coming to the U.S..
The graphs here make the results that higher homicide rates are associated with fewer unaccompanied children clear.
The results are inconsistent with the notion that the number of unaccompanied children coming to the U.S. are being driven by increasing homicide rates in these countries. Across all the observations, each one percentage point increase in homicide rates reduced the number of unaccompanied alien children coming across the border by 164 and the result is statistically significant at better than the one percent level. There is some justification for using this specification as it picks up the fact that Honduras as a high homicide rate but relatively few of its children trek across the U.S. border unaccompanied.
Accounting for the differences in countries to explain the different number of unaccompanied alien children implies that higher homicide rates still reduce the number of children crossing the border, but the effect can reject the claim that there is a positive relationship at less than the 10 percent level for a one-tailed t-test. Controlling for differences across countries and years, eliminates any statistical significance.
It looks like four party goers happened upon some gang members. Fortunately, one of the victims had his permitted concealed handgun. This dramatic defensive gun use got attention in Chicago, but if the permit holder hadn’t been at the scene, having multiple victims shot would have made national news. From the Chicago Tribune:
The military member and three others were leaving a party Friday night in the 11700 block of South Union Avenue in West Pullman . . .
One of the victims had noticed a cup of liquor on top of her vehicle and asked attendees of a party next door who it belonged to, Hain said.
When she removed it, Denzel A. Mickiel approached her, shouting obscenities and threatening her and her friends, according to Hain and court records.
Mickiel, 22, went into the residence, returned with a gun and began firing at the group, she said.
As Mickiel fired at the victims’ vehicle, the military member retrieved his gun and took cover near the vehicle’s front fender, according to Hain. Two unidentified people also shot at the group, she said.
The military service member fired two shots and struck Mickiel twice, she said.
A 22-year-old woman in the group was injured by Mickiel in the shooting, suffering wounds to the arm and back, according to court records and Hain.
The four victims escaped the melee in two vehicles as two unidentified people continued to shoot at them, Hain said. . . .
Mickiel was seriously wounded and taken to the hospital. He has been charged with attempted murder and is being ordered held on $950,000 bail.
A dramatic spike in the number of Americans with permits to carry concealed weapons coincides with an equally stark drop in violent crime, according to a new study, which Second Amendment advocates say makes the case that more guns can mean safer streets.
The study by the Crime Prevention Research Center found that 11.1 million Americans now have permits to carry concealed weapons, up from 4.5 million in 2007. The 146 percent increase has come even as both murder and violent crime rates have dropped by 22 percent.
“When you allow people to carry concealed handguns, you see changes in the behavior of criminals,” said the center’s president, John R. Lott, a Fox News contributor. “Some criminals stop committing crimes, others move on to crimes in which they don’t come into contact with victims and others actually move to areas where they have less fear of being confronted by armed victims.”
More than twice as many Americans now hold concealed carry permits compared to seven years ago, and a new study is pointing out a drop in murder and violent crime rates during this same time frame.
The Crime Prevention Research Center released its Concealed Carry Permit Holders Across the United States report Wednesday, revealing that 11.1 million Americans now hold concealed carry permits, while about 4.6 million carried them in 2007.
With the last concealed carry report from the Government Accountability Office three years ago indicating that about 8 million Americans held permits, the research center said its data analysis shows concealed carry permitting is “growing at faster and faster rates.”
The report also notes that based on data from 2007 and estimates from 2013 murder rates have fallen about 22 percent and violent crime rates have fallen by the same percentage as well.
The report acknowledges that many factors, not just the number of concealed carry permits, contribute to crime rates in different areas. Looking though at how crime rates varied before and after there were changes to permitting rules, “our analysis suggests that each 1 percentage point increase in the percent of the adult population holding permits is roughly associated with a 1.4 percent drop in the murder rate.”
Additional print coverage:
- CBS DC
- The New American
- Independent Journal Review
- People’s Pundit Daily
- The Examiner and also here.
- The Inquisitr
- MyFox DC
- MyFox Chicago
- Gun News
- Bearing Arms
The Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC) today released a report, Concealed Carry Permit Holders Across the United States, revealing that 11.1 million Americans hold concealed carry permits up from an estimated 4.6 million in 2007.
The last comprehensive report on the number of concealed carry permit holders was completed three years ago by the U.S. Government Accountability Office and showed that 8 million Americans held a concealed carry permit. These numbers show that the number of permits is not only increasing, but they are growing at faster and faster rates.
The report also notes:
- Three states (South Dakota, Indiana, and Alabama) now have over 10 percent of their adult populations with permits, and 10 states have at least 8 percent of their adult populations with permits.
- The number of concealed carry permit holders is likely much higher than 11.1 million.
- Between 2007 and the preliminary estimates for 2013, murder rates have fallen from 5.6 to 4.4 per 100,000 – a 22 percent drop in the murder rate at the same time that the percentage of the adult population with permits soared by 130 percent. Overall violent crime also fell by 22 percent over that period of time.